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1. Best Odds Slot Machine
2. Odds Of Winning Slot Machine

• Appendices
• Slots Analysis
• Miscellaneous

Introduction

When it comes to gambling, the easier a game is to understand the worse the odds usually are. This is certainly the case with slot machines. Playing them is as easy as pressing a button. However, between the high house edge and fast rate of play, there is no quicker way to lose your money in a casino.

Before going further, let me make clear that this page addresses the way slot machines work in most parts of the United States and the world. However, some parts of this page do not apply everywhere. For example, I state that slot machines have a memory-less property, where the odds of every spin are the same. In some places, like the UK, some machines in bars, called 'fruit machines,' have a mechanism that guarantees a certain profit over the short run, which causes the game to go through loose and tight cycles. These games do not have the usual independence property of the major slot makers.

How They Work

Whether you're playing a 3-reel single-line game or a 5-reel 25-line game, the outcome of every bet is ultimately determined by random numbers. The game will choose one random number for each reel, map that number onto a position on the reel, stop the reel in the appointed place, and score whatever the outcome is. In other words, the outcome is predestined the moment you press the button; the rest is just for show. There are no hot and cold cycles; your odds are the same for every spin on a given machine.

Slot machines are just about the only game in the casino where the odds are not quantifiable. In other words, the player doesn't know how the game was designed, so it is difficult to look at an actual game to use as an example. So, to help explain how they work, I created the Atkins Diet slot machine (link). It is a simple, five-reel game with a free spin bonus round, much like IGT's Cleopatra game.

For information on how it works and all the odds, please visit my Atkins Diet par sheet.

For a more complicated example, featuring sticky wilds in the bonus, please try my Vamos a Las Vegas slot machine.

For information on how it works and all the odds, please visit my Vamos a Las Vegas par sheet (PDF).

Odds

The following table shows the casino win for Clark County Nevada (where Las Vegas is) for all slots for calendar year 2012. They define 'slot' as any electronic game, including video poker and video keno. I've found video keno to be about equally as tight as reeled slots, but video poker has a much higher return. So, the return for reeled slots should be higher than these figures.

Clark County Slot Win 2012

Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board, Gaming Revenue Report for December 2012 (PDF, see page 6).

Most players play penny video slots. Based on past research, I find the house edge on those to usually be set from 6% to 15%. In general, the nicer the casino, the tighter the slots.

Advice

While there is no skill to playing slots, there is some skill in selecting which machine to play and ways you can maximize your return. What follows is my advice, if you must play slots at all.

• Always use a player card. Slots may be a lousy bet, but the casinos treat slot players very well. A $1 slot player will probably get comped better than a $100 blackjack player. Of course, don't play for the reason of getting comps. You'll give them a lot more than they'll give you.
• The simpler the game, the better the odds. The fancy games with big signs and video screens tend to not pay as well as the simple games. However, slot players always tell me the fancy games are more fun.
• The higher the denomination, the better the odds. For that reason, it is better to play one coin per line on a 5-cent game than five coins per line on a 1-cent game.
• Don't forget to cash out and take your ticket when you leave. It is easy to forget after hitting a jackpot.
• Try to play slowly and as little as possible to get your fix.
• In some games there is a skill feature, like Top Dollar. In such games, advice is usually offered, which you should take.

Myths and Facts

Just about everything that players believe about slots is untrue. Here are the most common myths and facts. As a reminder, this page is based on slot machines commonly found in the United States. Some machines, like 'fruit machines' found in the United Kingdom work differently.

• Myth: Slot machines are programmed to go through a cycle of payoffs. Although the cycle can span thousands of spins, once it reaches the end the outcomes will repeat themselves in exactly the same order as the last cycle.

  Fact: This is not true at all. Every spin is random and independent of all past spins.

• Myth: Slot machines are programmed to pay off a particular percentage of money bet. Thus, after a jackpot is hit the machine will tighten up to get back in balance. On the other hand, when a jackpot has not been hit for a long time it is overdue and more likely to hit.

  Fact: As just mentioned, each spin is independent of all past spins. That means that for a given machine game, the odds are always the same. It makes no difference when the last jackpot was hit or how much the game paid out in the last hour, day, week, or any period of time.

• Myth: Machines pay more if a player card is not used.

  Fact: The mechanism that determines the outcome of each play does not consider whether a card is used or not. The odds are the same with or without one.

• Myth: Using a player card enables the casino to report my winnings to the IRS.

  Fact: That makes no difference. If you win $1,200 or more they will report it either way. If you have a net losing year, which you probably will, at least the casino will have evidence of it. Such annual win/loss statements may be used as evidence to declare offsetting loses to jackpot wins.

• Myth: The slot department can tighten my game with the press of a button remotely. Thus, you better be nice to the staff and tip them well, or they will use a remote control to have the machine take you down in a hurry.

  Fact: There is now some truth to the myth that the odds of a machine can be changed remotely. Such 'server-based slots' are still experimental and in a minority. Even with server-based slots, there are regulations in place to protect the player from the perceived abuses that could accompany them. For example, in Nevada a machine can not be altered remotely unless it has been idle for at least four minutes. Even then, the game will display a notice that it is being serviced during such changes. (source) Meanwhile, for the vast majority of slots, somebody would physically need to open the machine and change a computer chip, known as an EPROM chip, to make any changes.

• Myth: The machines by the doors and heavy traffic flow areas tend to be loose while those hidden in quiet corners tend to be tight.

  Fact: I've studied the relationship between slot placement and return and found no correlation. Every slot director I've asked about this laughs it off as just another player myth.

• Myth: Slots tend to be looser during slow hours on slow days of the week. However, when the casino is busy they tighten them up.

  Fact: Nobody would take the trouble to do this, even if he could. The fact of the matter is the casinos are trying to find a good balance between winning some money while letting the player leave happy. That is best achieved by slots loose enough to give the player a sufficiently long 'time on device,' as they call it in the industry, with a reasonable chance of winning so he will return to the same casino next time. If the slots are too tight, the players will sense it and be unlikely to return.

  The kind of place you're likely to find tight slots are those with a captive audience, like the Las Vegas airport. So, if the slot manager feels that 92% is the right return for a penny game, for example, he is likely to set every penny game all that way, and keep them that way for years.

Play

Reviews

• Dazzle Me (NetEnt)
• Mr. Vegas (Betsoft)
• Sparks (NetEnt)

Internal Links

• Appendix 1 shows the details and analysis of almost 4000 actual spins on a Reno slot machine.
• Appendix 2 shows an example of the virtual reels behind a hypothetical slot machine and how the average return is calculated.
• Appendix 3A: 2003 Las Vegas slot machine rankings.
• Appendix 3B: 2002 Jean/Primm slot machine rankings.
• Appendix 3C: 2002 Tunica slot machine rankings.
• Appendix 3D: 2002 Henderson/Lake Mead slot machine rankings.
• Appendix 3E: 2002 Quarter and dollar returns for Las Vegas slots
• Appendix 4 shows how the return is calculated for my Wizard's Fruit Slot Machine.
• Appendix 5 analysis of the 21 Bell Slot Machine.
• Appendix 6 Analysis of Red, White, & Blue Slot Machine.
• Lock and Roll analysis of the skill-based slot machine found in North Carolina.
• Deconstructing Jackpot Party analysis of the video slot machine.
• Deconstructing Lion's Share analysis of the classic MGM progressive game.
• Deconstructing Cleopatra analysis of the popular IGT game.
• Deconstructing Lionfish analysis of the slot game found on many Game Maker machines.
• Deconstructing Megabucks.
• Deconstructing the Atkins Diet slot machine.
• Deconstructing Lucky Larry's Lobstermania.
• Deconstructing Hexbreaker.
• Deconstructing Blazing Sevens.
• Deconstructing Hot Roll.
• Mystery progressives on Ainsworth slots.
• Mystery progressives on WMS slots.
• Baltimore Sun article, in which I am quoted.
• 100% Rebate on Slot Losses Promotions: When to quit playing when all losses are refunded.

External Links

• For a simplified explanation of slots, please see my companion site Wizard of Vegas
• German translation of this page is available at richtigspielen.com
• Another decent overview of how slots work and some practical advice for playing them is How Slot Machines Work at VegasClick.com.
• PAR Sheets, probabilities, and slot machine play: Implications for problem and non-problem gambling by Kevin A. Harrigan and Mike Dixon, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. This is an outstanding academic paper that details how some popular slot machines were designed.
• PAR Sheets, probabilities, and slot machine play: Implications for problem and non-problem gambling - Academic paper based on the par sheets for some modern slot machines

I never play slot machines. If I want to play at a gambling machine, I usually stick with real money video poker.

I have various reasons for this, but one of the most important reasons is because the odds of winning at video poker are far better than the odds of winning at a slot machine game.

How do you know what the odds of winning on a video poker machine are? I can offer some guidance in this post. To learn more, keep reading below.

Probability and Video Poker

Before you can calculate the probability of winning at video poker, you need to understand some of the basics of probability math.

The first and most important thing to understand is that an event’s probability is just a number between 0 and 1. The closer that number gets to 1, the likelier it is to happen.

By definition, something with a probability of 0 will never happen. Also by definition, something with a probability of 1 will always happen.

And if you add the probability of something happening with the probability of it not happening, you’ll also always get a total of 1.

That probability can be expressed in multiple formats, but the most useful formats are odds and percentages.

Everyone knows what a percentage is. It’s just a measure of how many times out of 100 you expect something to happen. If something happens 20% of the time, that means it happens 20 times out of every 100.

Odds, on the other hand, can measure probability. But they also measure the amount a bet pays out. Something with a 20% probability of happening has odds of 4 to 1. You have four ways it can happen and one way that it can’t.

Like other fractions, odds can be reduced. To get to that 4 to 1, we just converted 20% into 20/100, which reduces down to 1/5. That means it happens 1 out of 5 times.

Gambling Machines Measure Their Odds in Terms of Payback Percentage

When you’re dealing with a slot machine, you have a variety of symbols on each reel, each of which comes up a certain percentage of the time. You don’t have any way of estimating how often that symbol will show up, but the slot machine manufacturer knows.

When they take all the possible combinations and their percentages of coming up, they balance that against the payout for each of those combinations to create a profitable game for themselves.

Let’s say you have a really simple slot machine game with four potential winning combinations:

1. You’ll get three bars 25% of the time and win even money.
2. You’ll get three cherries 10% of the time and win 2 for 1.
3. You’ll get three plums 5% of the time and win 3 for 1.
4. You’ll get three pumpkins 1% of the time and win 5 for 1.

It’s easy to calculate the expected return (another phrase for “payback percentage”) for a game like this.

You start by calculating the expected value for each of the possible prizes. You just multiply the probability of winning by the amount you’ll win.

1. 25% x 1 unit = 25%
2. 10% x 2 units = 20%
3. 5% x 3 units = 15%
4. 1% x 5 units = 5%

Add those up, and you have the payback percentage for the game:

Over time, on average, you’ll get back 65 cents for every dollar you bet on that slot machine game.

In the short run, over an hour or so, you might win some money or lose more than that. But over time, your average should get close to this.

The Advantage of Video Poker Over Slot Machines

My problem with slot machines is that they’re the only game in the casino where you don’t know what the odds of winning are.

When I’m rolling a pair of dice, I can calculate the probability of winning. When I’m playing blackjack, I can estimate the odds of winning, because I know what the odds of getting specific cards are. When I’m playing roulette, I know how many red and black outcomes are on the wheel.

But since slot machines are run by a random number generator, I have no way of knowing what the probability of getting three cherries in a row is. It could be 8 to 1, 16 to 1, or 1000 to 1.

All I know for sure is that the odds of getting each payout are lower than the payout odds for that combination.

Best Odds Slot Machine

Video poker, on the other hand, is based on a deck of 52 cards. I know how many of each card is in the deck, so I can estimate the odds of getting specific combinations.

When you combine that knowledge of probability with knowledge of the payouts for those combinations, you wind up with the payback percentage of the game.

Jacks or Better Is the Original Video Poker Game

For the most part, all video poker games are just variations of Jacks or Better. It’s a simple enough game. You bet between 1 and 5 coins and get dealt a virtual five-card poker hand. You then decide which of those five cards you want to discard and which you want to keep. The machine deals you replacement cards and pays off your bet based on the poker hand you wind up with.

The best possible hand is a royal flush, which pays off at 800 for 1 odds if you bet five coins. If you’ve bet fewer coins than that, it only pays off at 200 for 1 or 250 for 1, depending on the machine.

So, you should always bet the full five coins to take advantage of that higher payout. If you play with something approaching optimal strategy, you should get a winning hand about 45% of the time on a Jacks or Better video poker game.

That’s the short answer to “what are the odds of winning on a video poker machine,” by the way. It’s roughly 45%. But that’s not going deep enough. You should know more about it than that.

Since we know the probability of winding up with various combinations of cards, we can calculate the overall payback percentage for such a game. You just do the same calculations we did for the simple slot machine above.

You multiply the probability of winning each prize by the amount of that prize and add them all together to get your payback percentage.

1. A pair of jacks or better comes up about 21% of the time and pays off at 1 for 1.
2. Two pair comes up about 13% of the time and pays off at 2 for 1.
3. Three of a kind comes up about 7%of the time and pays off at 3 for 1.
4. A straight comes up about 1% of the time and pays off at 4 for 1.
5. A flush comes up about 1% of the time and pays off at 6 for 1.
6. A full house comes up about 1% of the time and pays off at 9 for 1.
7. A four of a kind comes up about 0.2% of the time and pays off at 25 for 1.
8. A straight flush comes up about 0.01% of the time and pays off at 50 for 1.
9. A royal flush comes up about 0.002% of the time and pays off at 800 for 1.

Multiply those and add them all up, and you have a game with a payback percentage of about 99.5%.

But Not All Video Poker Games Are the Same

Of course, Jacks or Better is just one variation of video poker. You can find dozens of different video poker variations on the market. All of them are based on Jacks or Better, though.

With some of these variations, the big difference is the inclusion of wild cards. In Joker Poker, the game uses a 53-card deck with a joker that acts as a wild card. In Deuces Wild, the deck has the same 52 cards in it, but the twos are wild cards.

With games like these, the payouts for the various hands change based on how much more likely the higher hands are to appear.

But that’s not the only way casinos and game manufacturers vary their video poker games. They also change the payouts on various hands.

If they change those payouts enough, you get a different game. Bonus Poker, Double Bonus Poker, and Bonus Bonus Poker are basically variations of Jacks or Better that provide higher payouts for four of a kind hands of a certain ranking.

But even within a single narrow band of a game, like Jacks or Better, you can find multiple pay tables available. The differences in these pay tables change the payback percentage for the game.

With Jacks or Better, the pay table I used as an example is the best possible example. When manufacturers want to create a Jacks or Better game with better odds for the house, they have smaller payouts for the full house and the flush. Changing those payouts from 9 and 6 to 8 and 5 reduces the payback percentage from 99.5% to 97%.

Your Decisions Matter

One of the other fun things I like about video poker is that your decisions have an effect on the outcome. These payback percentages that I mention assume that you’re playing your cards optimally. In other words, you’re making the right decisions about which cards to keep and which ones to throw away.

Imagine what your payout would be if you broke a pair every time you got one. Can you see why that would hurt your results in the long run?

Conclusion

What are the odds of winning at video poker? On a single hand, on most games, it’s about 45%. But that only tells a small part of the story.

Odds Of Winning Slot Machine

Video poker offers a nearly endless amount of complexity when it comes to payback percentages and correct strategy. It’s a game worth learning to play.